According to WeatherBrains, the Pacific Northwest is preparing for a substantial period of snowfall, commencing with a system arriving Friday and lasting through the weekend, followed by a more significant storm cycle into the following week. The forecast indicates a shift towards colder temperatures, which will contribute to improved snow quality across the Cascades and Coast Mountains.
The initial system, arriving Friday, February 13th, is expected to bring snow to the mountains through early Sunday. Snow levels will gradually decrease throughout the weekend. The most reliable snowfall is expected during this period, with manageable winds. The snow will arrive from northwest to southeast, impacting Whistler and Mt. Baker first, then spreading into the Cascades later on Friday.
Snow levels are initially expected to be between 3,000 and 4,000 feet, before dropping to between 1,800 and 2,500 feet by Saturday afternoon. This decrease in snow levels will improve conditions for lower base areas, such as those near Snoqualmie Pass. Anticipated snow totals at resorts during this period are generally in the 3-12 inch range. The best chances for higher totals are near Mt. Baker, Timberline, and Mt. Bachelor. Snow quality is expected to vary based on elevation and latitude. Snow Liquid Ratios (SLR) will likely be around 7 to 10:1 in the central Washington Cascades and closer to 11 to 13:1 farther north.
From early next week into midweek, the forecast indicates that colder air and repeated Pacific weather systems will continue to bring snow to the mountains. Models diverge regarding the specifics of each surge, including timing, intensity, snow levels, and wind impacts. However, most guidance suggests that snow levels will remain low enough for frequent pass-level snow. Colder air is expected to push SLRs up into the low to mid-teens, resulting in drier snow conditions compared to the weekend. Stronger scenarios suggest multi-day totals could accumulate to between 12 and 36+ inches for favored Cascade corridors and the higher Oregon volcanoes.
Later in the forecast period, the overall pattern is expected to remain cold and active across Washington and Oregon. Model divergence increases, leading to lower confidence in precise predictions. While some forecasts suggest another strong push of mountain snow late in the period, others indicate a shift in moisture focus or a decrease in storm intensity. This uncertainty also extends to snow levels and wind exposure from resort to resort. The general consensus favors below-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation across the region, increasing the likelihood of additional snow and further improvements in snow quality.
For those planning trips later in the forecast window, flexibility is advised. Monitor forecasts for clearer agreement on the location of the next moisture plume across the Cascades and Coast Mountains.
Resort Forecast Totals (Fri 2/13 – Sun 2/15):
- Mt Baker – 10″-13″
- Timberline – 8″-12″
- Mt Bachelor – 5″-7″
- Stevens Pass – 4″-6″
- Whistler – 4″-5″
- Snoqualmie Pass – 3″-4″
- Crystal Mountain – 3″-4″